As someone who was calling for Rick Perry to run for president, I’ll admit that he had some very poor debate moments in his first few weeks. It’s one thing to not be the most fluent debater, and one who has heard him speak several times can give him leniency for a few rough debate answers, but it’s another to look non-functional as Perry did on a whiffed attempt to attack Romney for supposedly changing positions. The worst early moment for Perry’s campaign, however, may have been his “I have a heart” defense of Texas’ DREAM Act.
It’s not that the Texas DREAM Act is completely unreasonable policy that disappointed many when Perry defended it, but that Perry resorted to the sort of shallow, emotional appeal that conservatives are accustomed to hearing from the left. Having a heart is not a very intellectual policy explanation, and there is an argument for the immigration policy for which Perry is being criticized. Perry failed to make the argument he should have been making, but he is making it now: The federal government failed to enforce federal immigration policy, and the state reacted to reduce the potential negative impact of having a lot of illegal immigrants.
I have not seen any numbers that analyze this, but it’s plausible that the cost of educating some children of illegal immigrants might be less than other potential costs associated with uneducated citizens requiring subsidization or even law enforcement and incarceration. And if these kids are educated, receive jobs, earn income, and pay taxes, it might actually be a good economic investment. That’s not to say that one has to support illegal immigration or any incentives for it, but the Republican Texas state legislature overwhelmingly supported the Texas DREAM Act in response to the federal government not enforcing immigration policy (plus, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio supported similar measures in Florida). Based on Perry’s other immigration policies, it’s hard to believe that he wouldn’t enforce the federal immigration policies that put his state in this position.
Perry is paying a price for his debate stumbles and weak defense of his Texas immigration policy. Herman Cain won the Florida straw poll and has moved into the top-tier with Perry and Romney in the most recent polls. Is Cain’s rise real, or is it a message from primary voters that Perry and Romney need to step up their games? It’s hard to tell right now, but anyone who watched the end of the baseball regular season should know that Perry should neither be crowned nor counted out right now.
Assuming Chris Christie stays out of the race, the competition is probably still between Romney and Perry, but Herman Cain or someone else may become a contender if neither of the two front-runners can win over both the middle and the base.
