Archive for March, 2010

Obama’s Drilling Plan Is Cynical Politics

This president, the liberals, and their environmental friends must think the American people are fools. The announcement that President Obama would open up the coasts for offshore drilling sounds like a reversal that is too good to be true for much of the country, and that is because it almost certainly is.

The same president who said his cap and trade plan would bankrupt coal companies and would cause energy prices to skyrocket, the same president who said he was okay with rising gas prices but only wished the rate of increase hadn’t been as high as it was in 2008, the same president who refused to abandon or start over on his healthcare plan despite such strong opposition now reverses his energy policy and wants to drill, baby, drill? Don’t count on it.

What is going on here is cynical politics. President Obama and his party have taken a beating in the polls over healthcare, and now they need some points to help them in November and to help push his cap and trade bill that stalled in the Senate. It’s likely that the reason the press is so willing to report this supposed effort to work with Republicans is because they and the environmental left have been assured that little, if any oil drilling will occur due to this new effort. They’re also counting on the public not figuring this out.

Remember last year when the Department of the Interior slowed efforts to produce oil by scrapping oil shale leasing? The department was attempting to delay and discourage oil and gas production by extending the public comment period, and it could increase royalties required for producers. The administration will gladly allow environmental lawyers to sue, and thanks to the Supreme Court, the EPA can now regulate CO2 and other greenhouse gases. How much drilling do you think there will be under the Obama administration?

What Obama wants to do is say that he’s coming to the center to work with Republicans. This might help him in a cap and trade push, as he can say that he has offered offshore drilling as a concession, and that Republicans should now support his agenda. Also, considering Obama seems to be preemptively setting up Mitt Romney, this could be a nice positioning move if Sarah Palin were his challenger in 2012.

Premiums Could Increase for Young Adults

The press is picking up on one of the first consequences of the healthcare bill I thought of when reading it. How nice of the press to tell us now. To be honest though, if the news that young adults will likely see their premiums increase is actually news for you, then you’ve either not been attention or you’ve been willfully blind.

When insurance companies are forced to cover anyone who wants insurance, and then are limited to a 3-to-1 cost difference ratio, what else could happen? As insurers pick up more people and cannot charge a price that reflects the true costs for the expensive consumers, then pretty much everyone’s prices have to go up. This is why the promises of premiums going down were never serious, and no one should have believed them.

Believe it or not, it gets even better. Guaranteed issue and mandates with fines could further exacerbate the problem. It may be better financially for some people to pay the penalty for not carrying insurance than to pay premiums. Without some of the young and healthy consumers to help subsidize insurance costs of the more expensive ones, premiums would likely go up for those who have insurance. Prices could further increase if a person without insurance became ill and then took advantage of guaranteed issue to buy insurance, forcing the insurer to then pay for them within the cost ratio.

These are unintended consequences of flawed law, and they have been anticipated by those of us who read the bill and thought about how it might actually work. It may sound nice to say that young and healthy people will help pay for the more expensive consumers, but in reality, it doesn’t work out so well.

As an aside, responding to President Obama’s remarks on the Today Show, first of all this bill is far from centrist. In fact, it’s only slightly closer to the center than what he and his party wanted at the beginning because the public thoroughly rejected even more liberal ideas and the Democrat party would therefore not support their own bill until it was watered down. Second, mocking critics of the bill by laughing and saying the world isn’t falling apart is unflattering and unconvincing. Asteroids may not be falling, but his poll numbers sure are, and he’s going to have a hard time laughing at the results his party will receive this November.

Dismissing your critics by trying to discredit and downplay them is politics 101. Then again, so is knowing that you can’t laugh away your critics when they are the overwhelming majority. President Obama may be laughing, but the American people sure aren’t.

Disagreement Over Foreign Policy and National Security in Obama Administration

Two very interesting articles were just written that describe tension and disagreement within the Obama administration. The first is about anti-terror policies, and the second is about our relationship with Israel. From the first article:

“Beyond the technical legal issues, this debate is about the fundamental question of whom we are at war with,” said Noah Feldman, a Harvard law professor who specializes in war-power issues. “The two problems most plaguing Obama in the war on terrorism are trials for terrorists and taking the fight beyond Afghanistan to places like Pakistan and Yemen. This issue of whom we are at war with defines both of them.”

As we’ve said here, defining the war is a crucial part of how we fight it. From the second article:

Sources say within the interagency process, White House Middle East strategist Dennis Ross is staking out a position that Washington needs to be sensitive to Netanyahu’s domestic political constraints including over the issue of building in East Jerusalem in order to not raise new Arab demands, while other officials including some aligned with Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell are arguing Washington needs to hold firm in pressing Netanyahu for written commitments to avoid provocations that imperil Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and to preserve the Obama administration’s credibility.

Disagreement and debate can be very good, as they can lead to stronger decisions. One problem with this administration, however, is that they don’t seem to have made clear decisions on some issues of foreign policy and national security. These are decisions a president must make and then generate buy-in from the team to implement. A team of rivals this administration is apparently not. Rather, they seem like a team with extremely varied ideological views, including liberal views that even President Obama knows better than to adopt if he wishes to not restrain himself in protecting the country.

That this administration struggles to communicate clear policies on these issues hasn’t been surprising, considering the lack of Obama’s previous experience in these areas and his non-serious views on the policies he actually did try to communicate during the campaign. That doesn’t make the administration’s ineptitude any less concerning. The president is elected to make decisions, but when reporting on the complicated issue of wartime detention, the NYT offers only this tidbit of Obama’s input:

And at a White House meeting, Mr. Obama weighed in, declaring that he did not want to invoke unrestrained commander-in-chief powers in detention matters.

No one is suggesting that the executive branch invoke unrestrained power, so this offering is pretty much worthless. I would hope that President Obama has more to say than that. It’s easy to question whether or not he does though, as his rhetoric about these policies has often been inconsistent with his positions. The public is mostly unaware of the positions this administration has been taking on war issues, and no one has a clue what the policy is towards Iran these days. We hear tough talk to Israel, but not much explanation of how our partnership can help stop the Iranian threat.

The Obama administration has only been clear about few initiatives for these issues, and many weren’t realistic. Pulling out of Iraq was never going to happen, nor was leaving Afghanistan early. We know how difficult it has been to close Guantanamo, and now that decision has only become tougher. Actually, maybe it has become easier to reverse, as two big stories came out last week that suggest keeping Gitmo open may be the best option.

First, a judge ordered the release of 9/11 conspirator and Mohamed Atta recruiter Mohamedou Slahi. Second, a former Gitmo detainee who was transferred to Afghanistan has since returned to the ranks of the Taliban. Examples like these suggest we handle detainees in a way that allows us to hold them until we can figure out something better to do with them. A law enforcement approach only increases the chances these people have of returning to the battlefield. President Obama likely knows this, which is probably why he hasn’t adopted some of the liberal views of his administration. But he hasn’t publicly endorsed the Bush policies he has held onto either, sending a mixed message about what his policies are on such matters.

I suggest the president take advantage of the debates in his administration to strengthen his policies. It would be a lot easier for the administration to communicate and implement their policies once they have settled on positions that have been debated and agreed to.

UPDATE: State Department legal adviser Harold Koh offered some explanation of the administration’s war positions in a recent speech to the American Society of International Law. This was picked up by the bloggers at Opinio Juris, so H/T to them. There are two additional points that I want to make.

One is that while Mr. Koh explains that the administration does believe we are at war with al Qaeda, the disagreement over how we define the enemy is still significant. Our ability to gather intelligence, capture, kill, interrogate, detain, and prosecute all depend on how we define the war. It’s important not to downplay the significance of the disagreements over this issue, as a lack of clarity can lead to inconsistent positions. The handling of KSM, the Underwear bomber, and other Gitmo detainees suggests that not everyone in this administration is on the same page, and that the consequences of not settling these important policy disagreements can lead to mistakes like we’ve seen.

The second point I want to make is that it’s clear this administration does not want to sell these policies to the public (and it’s understandable why not). While it’s helpful for Mr. Koh to articulate the administration’s approaches, the White House has not made this a priority. In fact, the president has criticized many of the policies he has mostly adopted, and I believe that the inconsistency between rhetoric and action has contributed to difficulties in handling related issues.

Crist vs. Rubio Debate on Fox News Sunday

Fox News Sunday hosted a debate between Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Senate hopeful Marco Rubio. Both men are running for the GOP Senate nomination this year. You can watch the debate here (part 1)  and here (part 2).

Medicare Drug Tax and the Blame Game

It is a good thing the media is picking up on disgruntled employers who will have to deal with losing the tax deduction on retirees’ prescription drug programs in Medicare. Not only is it important to understand what is in this bill that few of us actually read, but it is important to understand the game that Democrats will play to further push their agenda. Here is how this will work.

Employers will have to decide to between eating the extra cost, passing the extra cost onto retirees, or dropping the prescription drug programs for retirees. You know it won’t be the first option, unless employers plan on cutting the money from somewhere else. Seniors will therefore lose their coverage or will be forced to pay more on their own for prescription drugs. Oops. Maybe Democrats were too busy celebrating themselves to have noticed this part of the bill, or maybe they meant to do this.

The idea was probably to make employers cover more healthcare costs for employees. This is where Democrat politics come in. When premiums increase along with out of pocket costs for prescription drugs, guess who will be blamed? Will it be the Democrats, whose regulations and taxes caused the negative changes? Of course not. The Democrats will tell us our employers and insurance companies are the cause of our woes so they can generate more support to further intervene. Really, it’s that simple.

Of course, the Democrats could counter claims made by employers like AT&T, Caterpillar, and Verizon by having small employers speak out in favor of insurance subsidies for their employees. But, because Democrats had to delay the subsidies until 2014 in order to make the bill sound more fiscally responsible in the CBO analysis, they’ll have a hard time finding employers who can offer positive testimony until then. In the meantime, expect more blame on everyone except those who created the policy.

EDIT: To be fair, some small businesses will be eligible for tax credits starting this year, but the full extent of the help won’t come until 2014, when mandates also kick in and could cause many employers headaches.

A Concerning Blunder With Israel

What has been going on between the U.S. and Israel? We’ve heard reports that President Obama “snubbed” Netanyahu at the White House this past week, and we know there has been tension over Israeli construction in Jerusalem as the Obama administration has been trying to facilitate negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.

Is Netanyahu’s defiance to blame? Maybe a little, but the real failure has been the Obama administration’s approach:

Astonishingly, Obama is repeating the key tactical mistake of his failed efforts to restart Middle East peace talks over the last year. Though Obama’s insistence on a settlement freeze to help restart negotiations was legitimate, he went a step too far by including building in East Jerusalem. Every Israeli government over the last four decades has built in the Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem; no government, let alone one headed by the Likud, could possibly agree to a freeze there. Obama made resumption of negotiations hostage to a demand that could not be met. The result was that Palestinian leaders were forced to adjust their demands accordingly.

Obama is directly responsible for one of the most absurd turns in the history of Middle East negotiations. Though Palestinian leaders negotiated with Israeli governments that built extensively in the West Bank, they now refused to sit down with the first Israeli government to actually agree to a suspension of building. Obama’s demand for a building freeze in Jerusalem led to a freeze in negotiations.

Finally, after intensive efforts, the administration produced the pathetic achievement of “proximity talks”—setting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations back a generation, to the time when Palestinian leaders refused to sit at the same table with Israelis.

That Obama could be guilty of such amateurishness was perhaps forgivable because he was, after all, an amateur. But he has now taken his failed policy and intensified it. By demanding that Israel stop building in Ramat Shlomo and elsewhere in East Jerusalem—and placing that demand at the center of American-Israeli relations—he’s ensured that the Palestinians won’t show up even to proximity talks. This is no longer amateurishness; it is pique disguised as policy.

It’s hard to disagree with this analysis, and it’s hard not to side with the Israelis on this one, as Obama’s approach suggests he’s trying to look tough by playing hardball with Israel. The Obama administration’s backwards philosophy of being tough on allies and soft on enemies is a flawed one, it sends the wrong message, and it puts our Israeli friends in a difficult position.

UPDATE: I forgot that there could be an even worse reason for this mess. The Obama administration could have realized that Israel was not going to meet the construction demands, and was therefore looking for a perceived excuse to be upset with Israel. If I had to choose between the two possibilities, I’d hope that this was just the Obama administration’s amateurishness.

UPDATE 2: Jen Rubin and Bill Kristol think that this outrage was by design, as I was hoping wasn’t the case. Here is Kristol’s take:

Why the exploitation of a minor disagreement with the Israeli government to justify a turn against Israel? President Obama cares about being popular—in America, certainly, but in the world as well. And not just because popularity in the world can help the United States achieve its foreign policy aims. But because, as James Ceaser argued in these pages in January, Obama aspires to be a leader of humanity, not merely a president of a single country.

And there’s no better way to be a leader of humanity than to show disapproval of the Jewish state. Sure, Obama’s turn against Israel will make it less likely that Palestinians will negotiate seriously with her. Sure, it will embolden radical Arabs and Muslims against those who would like their nations to take a different, more responsible, course. Sure, it’s a distraction from the real challenge of Iran. But the turn against Israel is ultimately a key part of what Obamaism is all about. That’s why there’s been so little attempt by the administration to reassure friends of Israel that Obama has been acting more in sorrow than in anger. Obama’s proud of his anger at the stiff-necked Jewish state. It puts him in sync with the rest of the world.

UPDATE 3: 327 Congressmen have signed a letter expressing commitment to our relationship with Israel. H/T Ed Morrissey.

UPDATE 4: Jonathan Tobin writes that President Obama’s position with Israel is an historic departure from past policies.

Obama’s New Housing Plan: Subsidize Underwater Homes

Brilliant idea. Look, the housing problem has caused massive financial losses that are complicated to reverse, but throwing a little more money at the problem is only delaying the inevitable. It’s silly to make an emotional appeal to help the unemployed in this case, because the current economic policies aren’t going to help put people back to work anytime soon, and because the federal housing program subsidies help more than just the less fortunate. Plus, this creates another backwards incentive by penalizing those who manage their money responsibly.

Then again, the government is now assuming our healthcare and student loan payments, so maybe they should just pay for our homes too. At this pace, our debt will be 90% of the GDP by 2020. That won’t stop Obama though.

Reform and Repeal

Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) contributed an op-ed in the NYT today suggesting a change of course, and real healthcare reforms that can put us back on a sustainable path.

UPDATE: Yuval Levin explains why and how ObamaCare must be undone.

Max Baucus Admits ObamaCare Is About Spreading The Wealth

In one of those rare instances when a Democrat can’t help but admit the motivation behind liberal policy, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus explains what ObamaCare is all about:

Wasn’t it supposed to be about helping people get healthcare? H/T Hugh Hewitt.

UPDATE: James Lileks explains to Hugh Hewitt just how big of a hypocrite Max Baucus is.

Drug and Device Provisions In Healthcare Reform Bill

FDA Law Blog has a summary, written by Hyman, Phelps, & McNamara, P.C., of drug and device provisions in the healthcare bill.

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