The holiday week produced some major drama, as Harry Reid rounded up the 60 votes necessary for his Senate bill. Michelle Malkin has a summary of what buyouts were necessary to get the remaining votes in the Senate. As I’ve been saying, the passing of this Senate bill was expected, as is the manner in which it was passed.
Some on the left are heralding this as a monumental moment for healthcare and social policy in general. Some on the right are lamenting a massive step towards socialism. Some on both sides are rightly disgusted with an embarrassing political process that is nothing like President Obama promised on the campaign trail. Democrat senators like Harry Reid are saying how great this bill is and that we’ll all appreciate it later. Reid and other liberals celebrating this bill are faking it.
Let’s be clear about what happened. First, the House sneaked a bill through by a five vote margin because of an anti-abortion amendment offered by a Democrat, because it watered down the public option, and because it offered goodies to some moderates. Next, the Senate had to buy votes on both sides and strip the public option. What are we left with? Two bills without much of what the Democrats in Congress set out to achieve, that will neither nationalize nor improve the insurance market, and that will be difficult to reconcile.
The Senate bill is a massive subsidy to buy private insurance, so any liberal in Congress saying how proud they are of this bill is lying through his or her teeth. They wanted nationalized insurance, but couldn’t get it. They then wanted a public option that would help them get to nationalization, but couldn’t get that either. They then offered a significant Medicare expansion, but couldn’t get that either. What did they get?
Insurance regulations and mandates that will largely raise premiums and taxes that will hit the middle class and will probably break Obama’s tax pledge. Will the deficit be reduced? Not likely, as the Senate bill relies on significant Medicare cuts that are unlikely to happen. Even if they do, the CBO estimate suggests a small deficit reduction that would be wiped out by Medicare physician payments that have been stripped from the bill. And savings to Medicare would likely be spent elsewhere instead of paying down debt.
Both the right and left mostly hate this bill, and for good reason. This bill will waste billions and perhaps trillions of dollars if not overturned (and the Senate is questionably trying to make it hard to overturn). It will raise premiums and taxes. It will raise costs of healthcare by adding taxes on drugs and devices that will be passed on to consumers and paid for with the subsidies that the government will offer (essentially, the government will tax us to pay for additional costs that it creates).
That is, if a bill passes at all. President Obama has adjusted expectations by looking for the debate to carry into February. Why? Because the Senate bill has more liberal abortion language than the House bill, which needed that Stupak abortion amendment to narrowly pass the House. Also, because the House bill has a public option while the Senate bill had to strip that provision to pass. Here are some other differences that will have to be worked out.
If President Obama signs a bill later this Winter or Spring that mandates and subsidizes the purchase of private insurance as the Senate bill does now, then he’ll have to bite his tongue to do it. The Senate bill is nothing like he and his party wanted. The House bill surely would make him happier, but even it is a far cry from what they intended. The Democrats may get some things they want, but they are losers in this battle, and they should be losers in 2010 for repudiating a strong majority of public opinion.
I’m ashamed of this Congress, but not at all surprised. This is who we elected.